What to expect from COP29

On the agenda for the 11 days of COP29 is the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), loss and damage, mitigation and adaptation priorities, and the importance of collaborative networks between public, private, and international players (including collaboration between the COP29 and COP30 Brazil presidencies).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, limiting warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius requires global greenhouse gas emissions to reach a climax before 2025 and decrease by 43 per cent by 2030 to prevent irrevocable damage. The World Meteorological Organisation’s State of Global Climate report confirmed 2023 as the hottest year on record by a clear margin, with records broken for ocean heat, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice loss, and glacier retreat.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “Never have we been so close – albeit on a temporary basis at the moment – to the 1.5° C lower limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The WMO community is sounding the Red Alert to the world.”

She added, “Climate change is about much more than temperatures. What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern.”

While accepting that climate change was not solely the cause, the WMO report indicated that the number of people who are acutely food insecure worldwide has more than doubled in 78 World Food Programme-monitored countries, from 149 million people pre-COVID-19 to 333 million people in 2023. There is also unprecedented climate-related migration and displacement.

COP courts controversy

The controversy centres upon Azerbaijani Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic, Mukhtar Bahadur oghlu Babayev. His role in presiding over COP29 follows numerous roles over 30 years within the authoritarian state-owned oil company, SOCAR, which represents part of the fundamental fabric of Azerbaijan’s economic reliance on oil and gas. Corruption has long been rumoured to be rife within political ranks and business operations, and the event itself has not escaped such accusations. The event will be held at Emin Agalarov’s Sea Breeze complex, for which Agalarov will be paid $5.2 million by the government in a contract that was closed to bids from any competitors. Official partners of this year’s COP29 count amongst them businesses owned by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his family.

Babayev paid visits to the Pacific and Australia in August and September, acknowledging the dire need for climate action particularly in the Pacific Island nations, reliant upon the sea and farming for food, trade, security and their economic stability.

COP28 established the framework for the climate finance “loss and damage” fund agreed upon at COP27 to enable developing, vulnerable economies to mitigate and respond to the physical impacts of climate change. It also focused on reducing emissions before 2030 through the phasing out of fossil fuel dependence.

This year, the Paris Agreement will be discussed and the goals ratified in 2016 will be assessed in terms of achievements and required actions. There will also be conversations on the role of energy provision, use and how this affects conflict, humanitarian disasters, and security. As conflict rages in Ukraine, Lebanon, Gaza and Sudan, the inevitable interaction between natural resources, ownership, trade and use must be recognised and a united approach to a humanitarian solution agreed upon.

In the last few days of the conference, water and food security are top priorities, along with urbanisation, transport, tourism and the impacts of climate change on youth, health, and education.

Agenda for COP29

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, international carbon markets have been a matter of contention over issues of authorisations, registries, and the measures and means of compliance amongst other factors. Negotiations have been heated, with COP29 the destination for decision texts to clarify key points.

The New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG): As promising as the concept of a fund to address climate damage and mitigate for future damage, it is proving complicated and challenging in reality. Terms of Reference for the 2024 review of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) have been decided upon this year at the 60th session of the Subsidiary Bodies (SB60) in Bonn, and the World Bank will host the Loss and Damage Fund (LD Fund) temporarily before formal arrangements are established.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) points out that 69 per cent of all climate finance is currently provided in loans, exacerbating debt crises and forcing vulnerable economies into reliance on private finance providers in climate-vulnerable countries.

The WEF is arguing that the NCQG “requires core public grant funding – around $1 trillion annually – directed at developing countries in line with their evolving needs. This funding should be allocated across mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage to prevent the current imbalance, where most funds go towards mitigation.”

While the WEF claims that taxing millionaires and billionaires could feasibly result in this goal being met, the reality of political leadership introducing taxes on their richest, often most influential business lobbyists is unlikely. Additionally, introducing a substantial fossil fuel levy could also raise hundreds of billions according to 2023 figures, the political wherewithal to impose this tax is absent. The WEF, however, posits that “with energy profits soaring (over $120 billion for the five oil majors in 2023) and emissions targets slipping, interest is growing in windfall taxes and a fossil fuel levy that could yield $210 billion annually.”

The World Meteorological Organisation says that adaptation finance continues to be insufficient. Its March 2024 report indicated that “Though adaptation finance reached an all-time high of USD $63 billion in 2021/2022, the global adaptation financing gap is widening, falling well short of the estimated USD $212 billion per year needed up to 2030 in developing countries alone.”

Gender and Climate Change: The Lima Work Programme on Gender (LWPG, established at COP20 in 2014) went through a final review at SB60, resulting in a draft which will ideally be presented for discussion and adoption at COP29. Likewise, the Gender Action Plan (GAP), formed at COP23, is still under review.

Both the LWPG and GAP recognise the disproportionate impacts of climate change on women. The draft identifies the need for greater data on the ways climate change is affecting women, the necessity of cooperation between international bodies such as the UN, NGOs, governments and private organisations to address risks, and address existing vulnerabilities through enhanced regulations and policies relating to gender equality and climate action.

In October, Professor of Environmental Science at the University of South Africa Llewellyn Leonard wrote a feature for The Conversation that argued for greater legal powers to hold polluting corporations and countries to account. His view was COP29 could be the catalyst for a “polluter pays” practice rather than a theoretical principle. From his base in South Africa, he is witness to the impact climate change is having on the continent. He wrote, “Failing to stop all greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 could cost the African continent US$50 billion annually. It is also expected to cause some 250,000 deaths a year globally between 2030 and 2050. Africa would be badly affected.”

While the Paris Agreement 2015 was legally binding, there were no sanctions nor major international backlash when the US joined, then withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2020. It rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021 when Joe Biden entered the Oval Office, but the ease with which a major polluter dithers over commitment to a long term, global framework bodes ill as a blueprint for other nations.

Professor Leonard convincingly argues that emissions trading (carbon credits schemes) have provided a system for major emitters to claim offsets, while carrying on “business as usual” with devastating environmental impacts. The Australia Institute has also argued that the government’s Australian Carbon Credit Units scheme is “a recipe for climate disaster.” Researchers from UNSW and the Australian National University (ANU) examined human-induced forest regeneration (HIR) projects, which are the largest nature-based pure carbon removal offset projects in the world, and found serious flaws and widespread non-compliance. Indeed, the majority of projects did not comply with the regulations set out by the federal government.

Enhanced powers for international legal bodies

Professor Leonard has argued COP29 could agree upon the role of international legal bodies, including the International Court of Justice to investigate and adjudicate upon cases of environmental damage and accordingly award damages to the victims (whether this is cities, countries or people is unclear). He posits that a legal framework enabling lawsuits to be brought against governments, corporations and others responsible for excessive emissions is beyond due, pointing to past legal victories like the 2021 ruling by a Dutch Hague District court ordering Royal Dutch Shell to reduce its emissions by 45 percent by 2030.

The Climate Change Litigation archives document 135 cases relating to Australia ranging from the High Court of Australia, the Federal Court of Australia, the Refugee Review Tribunal and state-by-state. Globally, there are over 700 cases against governments documented since the site was founded in 2011. The necessity to recognise and significantly, substantially address the global impact of national polluters is fundamental: in international and domestic law, in government policy, in the media, and in the changemakers’ discussions at COP29.