NSW wastewater findings indicate major expansion of illicit drugs market

Amongst key initiatives that have evolved over the decade are the National Criminal Intelligence System and the Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program. The NCIC permitted law enforcement around the nation to share and use information, especially critical in interstate organised crime. The most recent national wastewater drug report, for April, indicates New South Wales is outpacing the rest of Australia in methylamphetamine, cocaine, MDMA, and heroin. The drug market has expanded over the past 10 years, becoming even more pervasive, despite enhanced intelligence.

Wastewater analysis by the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) indicates that NSW is outpacing the rest of the nation when it comes to use of methamphetamines, cocaine, opioids, and MDMA. Cocaine consumption alone has experienced sharp spikes. At the same time, border seizures have increased. On 26 June, the Australian Border Force took advantage of the International Day Against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking to highlight the detection of 14 tonnes of illicit drugs, including cocaine and ketamine (an annual rise in seizures of over 255 per cent).

Criminal lawyer, Rhian Bartley, from Bartley Legal, says drug and alcohol-related crime in NSW is significant, as a policing and legal issue.

“It is a constant of criminal practice in NSW. Spend a morning in almost any Local Court and it is hard to miss,” she says. “Drugs and alcohol are frequently present in assaults, driving matters, domestic violence and property offences, even where the charge itself is not a drug charge.”

The numbers support that impression. BOCSAR’s recent research on the Early Drug Diversion Initiative found police proceeded against more than 11,700 people for using or possessing prohibited drugs other than cannabis in the 13 months to March 2025. That figure captures only use and possession matters, but it shows how much enforcement effort is still absorbed at the user end of the market.

Bartley says, “For lawyers, it runs the full breadth of the system. One week it is a young client picked up with drugs at a festival, facing consequences that may outlast the offence by years. The next it is a large commercial supply brief where the maximum penalty may be life imprisonment. In between sits all the machinery built to bridge health and justice, including the Drug Court, MERIT and diversion programs.”

She reflects that the significance is not just the volume.

“It is that we are still running what is often a health problem through a criminal system at enormous cost, while the serious end of the market continues to grow.”

In March, NSW Health issued a public health warning regarding a spate of opioid overdoses presenting to Sydney and Western NSW in which people had assumed they were using cocaine. NSW has earned the dubious title of Cocaine Capital of Australia (Sydney Morning Herald). The theory is that the high concentration of disposable income in Sydney correlates with the market for cocaine.

But there are other factors behind the state’s drug use spike. Its extensive coastline and major international ports, such as Port Botany and the Port of Newcastle, have been identified by law enforcement as significant points of entry for illicit substances smuggled by organised crime syndicates.

The National Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program, an initiative of ACIC, released its ninth report in April this year, which reveals data for the period between December 2024 to October 2025. Nationally, there was a 21 per cent increase in MDMA, opioids, cocaine and methamphetamine on the year prior, in which there had already been an increase of 34 per cent. Despite the Australian Border Force claiming a world-best dog sniffer program, and billions spent on domestic drug law enforcement and border seizure operations, Australia – and NSW particularly – have failed to curb the international supply of drugs, nor the domestic manufacturing of methamphetamine and MDMA products.

The solution isn’t clear, and it is inevitably going to involve legislators, police, health authorities, politicians, and community engagement. The NSW Greens have newly launched the campaign: “It’s Time. Drug Use Should Not Be a Crime.” The party argues that the “war on drugs” has failed, and that use and possession of small amounts of drugs ought to be decriminalised, along with cannabis, to avoid clogging up the justice system with minor offences, and to prevent “lifelong negative impacts” of a criminal record.

Funding to target organised crime

On 18 June, the NSW Minister for Police and Counter-terrorism announced a $126 million budget allocation for the NSW Police Force and NSW Crime Commission to battle organised crime.

According to the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC), organised crime in NSW largely depends upon the illicit drug trade as its primary and most lucrative source of income. The AIC determined that illegal drug market directly drives the vast majority of violent gang disputes, shootings, and kidnappings in the state.

Though the fifth most common type of case brought to court nationally, illicit drug charges make up approximately 6 per cent of all criminal court defendants in NSW. Unlawful possession or use accounts for around 70 per cent of these drug offences, while the remainder involve dealing, trafficking, and manufacturing. Most are finalised in the Local Court.

An Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) spokesperson told LSJ Online that of the major illicit drugs monitored, estimated consumption of methylamphetamine, cocaine, MDMA and heroin have all increased since monitoring commenced. Between August 2024 and August 2025, the total estimated consumption of these four drugs increased by 4.6 tonnes, representing a 21 per cent rise.

The estimated street value of these drugs reached a record $14.3 billion in year nine of wastewater testing, up from $11.5 billion in year eight.

In total volume terms, NSW records the highest consumption of major illicit drugs, reflecting its larger population. However, on a per capita basis, consumption varies by drug type and location.

The spokesperson said, “Illicit drugs are not solely a law enforcement issue and no single approach in isolation will achieve sustained reduction in use. Effective responses require a holistic approach across supply, demand and harm reduction.”

The wastewater data informs law enforcement, public health and policy responses, while enabling comparison with other data sources, including hospital presentations, ambulance data, prisoner surveys and research involving people who inject drugs.

The spokesperson said, “The findings can help inform the targeting and prioritisation of supply, demand and harm reduction initiatives.”

Glimmers of optimism in the data

Bartley does not see any failing of police in the detection and disruption to supply chains, nor is the outlook all bleak.

She says, “Police and border agencies are seizing very large quantities, and the courts continue to impose heavy sentences, yet consumption has continued to rise. ACIC wastewater figures showed an estimated 22.2 tonnes of methylamphetamine, cocaine, heroin and MDMA consumed nationally in the year to August 2024, up 34 per cent, with cocaine alone up 69 per cent. That happened during a period when major encrypted communications networks were being dismantled.”

The same wastewater program has recorded very low oxycodone and fentanyl consumption in parts of regional Australia, which is a very different story to North America.

“Nor is this a gap in the law,” says Bartley. “NSW already has very severe drug penalties, including life imprisonment for some large commercial quantity supply offences. If severity alone worked, we would know by now. What the data suggests is a demand-driven market with margins so high that enforcement risk is treated as a cost of doing business. Take out one syndicate and, unless demand is addressed, another participant has an incentive to fill the space.”

The Drug Misuse and Trafficking Act 1985 (NSW) does most of the work for domestic drug offending. Possession generally carries up to two years’ imprisonment. Supply penalties scale with quantity and drug type. For many prohibited drugs, commercial quantity supply carries up to 20 years, and large commercial quantity supply may carry life imprisonment. Importation is generally dealt with federally.

Bartley explains, “There is also a provision most people have never heard of until it is used against them: deemed supply. If a person is caught with not less than the traffickable quantity, the law deems them to possess the drug for supply unless they prove otherwise. In practice, that reversal of onus often catches users and lower-level participants more readily than the people controlling the trade.”

That is the real limitation, she believes.

“Our laws work best against whoever is physically holding the drugs, and organised networks are structured so that person is usually not the principal. The people in the dock are often couriers, drivers and phone holders. The principals communicate on encrypted platforms, keep layers between themselves and the product, and may direct operations from offshore. To convict someone who never touched a package, investigators usually need long-running surveillance, financial evidence, encrypted communications evidence and often an insider willing to assist. Convicting the courier is comparatively easy. Convicting the organiser is much harder and is what actually disrupts capacity.”

Targeting organised cartels or gangs

Bartley thinks the argument to ease drug laws and target bigger fish is viable.

“It is not a radical position,” she says. “A health-focused model that would remove criminal penalties for personal use and possession was one of the central recommendations of the Ice Inquiry after years of evidence. The 2024 Drug Summit heard much the same argument.”

In her view, NSW has moved toward a limited diversion model for small-quantity possession and this is a positive.

“But the available data suggests the scheme is not diverting nearly enough matters,” she says.

BOCSAR found that in its first 13 months, only 9.3 per cent of people proceeded against for use or possession received an Early Drug Diversion Initiative outcome. The overwhelming majority were still dealt with through ordinary criminal process.

The Government has so far stopped short of decriminalisation.

“For me, the strongest argument is practical,” says Bartley. “Minor possession prosecutions consume police hours, court time and Legal Aid resources that could be spent on the supply chain. Easing the approach to minor possession is not the same thing as softening the law on serious supply. Nobody serious is arguing for lighter treatment of commercial supply. The point is that a system prosecuting thousands of end users each year, while the market continues to grow, has its priorities upside down.”

Factors for NSW being a drug hotspot

Bartley believes there are a number of reasons this state has become a hotspot for drug use across multiple types.

“NSW has the biggest population, a very large economy and one of the country’s major container ports. Sydney buyers also pay some of the highest cocaine prices in the world, which makes the city an obvious destination for international traffickers.”

High prices have not dampened demand; they have helped guarantee supply.

Bartley says, “Sydney’s dial-a-dealer networks are organised and resilient. Arrest the person holding the phone and, too often, the number keeps ringing.”

She concludes, “The courts are effective for what courts are for. Convictions are secured, evidence is tested, and severe sentences are imposed at the top end. My reservation is not about the courts but about policy. Courts deal with the people in front of them. The prosecutions show the system working as designed. The wastewater numbers raise a different question: whether the design achieves its broader purpose.”