Explaining South Korea’s present turmoil

To understand the fast-moving conditions in South Korean law and politics, it helps to consider the fundamental unrest that has formed modern South Korean existence. It is a young republic, proclaimed in 1948, and proceeded by the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. There was never a peace agreement with North Korea, which continues to pose a significant threat more than 70 years on. It is an even younger democracy, having been an authoritarian state until it declared democracy in 1987.

On 3 December last year, President Yoon Suk Yeol attempted to impose martial law. He is presently suspended. He was swiftly replaced by acting president Han Duck-soo, though parliament voted to impeach him based on Duck-soo’s apparent refusals to comply with Yoon’s impeachment process. The third in line to be acting president is finance minister, Choi Sang-mok.

On 3 January, South Korean police attempted to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence in Seoul in a drawn out, six-hour standoff, failing to do so as hundreds of protesters and the president’s security staff (PSS) thwarted their attempt. Mimicking the contentious US political protesters following Donald Trump’s failed presidential run in 2020, a number of Korean protesters held up signs reading “Stop the Steal”.

On 6 January, the investigators – the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) together with the prosecutor’s office and police – into Yoon’s alleged insurrection sought an extension to the arrest warrant, despite Yoon’s lawyers claiming the arrest warrant is illegal. Yoon’s lawyers have argued the anti-graft force leading his criminal investigation has no authority under South Korean law to investigate any case involving insurrection accusations. Seek Dong-hyeon, a lawyer advising Yoon, claimed the CIO’s attempt to transfer the execution of the arrest warrant to police equates to an admission that the CIO’s investigation and warrant were “illegal”.

The CIO is an independent agency formed in 2021 to investigate high-ranking officials, but it does not have authority to prosecute a president. Legally, it must refer the case to the prosecutors’ office to take any action including indictment once their investigation is complete.

LSJ spoke to Jay Song, Hon Associate Professor at the Research School of Management of the ANU College of Business and Economics at the Australian National University. Prior to her current position, she was the Korea Foundation’s Associate Professor and Director of the Korean Studies Research Hub at the University of Melbourne.

Song says that as dire as the current predicament is for South Koreans as far as facing a likely new President in broadly unpopular opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, the overwhelmingly positive consequence of this chaos is an overdue modernising of the constitution to prevent further political instability.

“Impeachment has to be the last resort,” she says. “South Koreans have never seen a president like this, one who believes in conspiracy theories. The motivation he used for this declaration of martial law was that the last general election was rigged, and he was manipulating the evidence that there is a serious North Korea threat, which was entirely ungrounded.”

Why did Yoon Suk Yeol attempt to impose martial law?

It was close to 11pm on 3 December 2024 when President Yoon Suk Yeol of the People Power Party (PPP) declared martial law for the first time since South Korea became a democracy in 1987. Yoon’s reasoning was that sympathisers with North Korea were “anti state” actors posing a threat to national security. He did so less than a week after the opposition Democratic Party proposed cuts to Yoon’s government budget and also moved to impeach cabinet members for failing to investigate first lady Kim Keon Hee for accepting a luxury Dior bag in 2022, contravening South Korean laws that make it illegal for public official and their spouses to accept gifts worth more than 1 million won at one time, or 3 million won in a year. She had already faced accusations of stock market manipulation.

To avoid the imposition of martial law, MPs who had not been present in parliament were called back urgently – many of them scrabbling over fences and breaking through barricades to enter the National Assembly to vote down the declaration. Over the following days and evenings, tens of thousands of protesters gathered to decry the declaration, raising the prospects of a dictatorship and a return to authoritarian rule.

Song’s theory is that Yoon was making a desperate attempt to avoid investigations and revelations about his wife’s alleged corruption.

“We won’t know until it’s properly investigated, but Yoon’s wife is facing corruption charges because she’s been involved in receiving a luxury Dior handbag, meddling in government contracts to have a highway built for her family’s property, and also interfering in local elections,” she says.

The leak to media of a 2022 phone conversation between a political consultant, Myung Tae-kyun and both the First Lady and the President happened one month before Yoon’s declaration of martial law.

“Nobody seems to be covering this in the media,” Song says. Korean media has published stories, but there is very little in Western media about the leaked phone conversation.

“Mr. Myung was arrested and investigated for corruption and breach of the election law. Yoon’s declaration of martial law came right after the leak. The phone conversation was only partially leaked to the media, and that was embarrassing enough, but the full phone conversation threatened to be leaked, so I suspect Yoon is protecting his wife.”

Opposition lawmakers filed a motion to impeach Yoon

To impeach Yoon Sook Yeol, the Democratic Party required a two-thirds majority to pass the motion.

Having counted 192 of 300 seats in favour, the Democratic Party still required eight PPP members to vote for impeachment, however many exited the chamber in boycott against the vote. On their second attempt on 14 December, the opposition achieved their goal of getting 12 members of Yoon’s party to vote for impeachment.

Yoon was duly suspended from office and must await the decision of the constitutional court, which has to decide within six months of the impeachment vote. The consensus from lawmakers is that a decision will be made by next month. If he is removed from office, South Korea must hold an election within the next 60 days to vote for a new leader. The Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is the frontrunner by a large margin in opinion polls.

In December 2016, a corruption scandal involving a shaman’s daughter who wielded undue influence over then-President Park Geun-hye led to the inevitable end to her presidency. She was impeached and removed from office despite the opposition Democratic Party lacking votes. For weeks, the opposition continued to apply pressure along with millions of public protesters demanding impeachment. Once the impeachment motion is approved, the Constitutional Court holds an impeachment trial. This is not a judicial court, however. The Constitutional Court is a nine-member council presiding over three branches of government. If a minimum of six justices of the Constitutional Court vote to sustain the impeachment motion, the president is removed from office.

Song says, “Former President Park was impeached, and her investigation was led by the current President Yoon when he was the prosecutor in special investigations. Park collaborated with the investigation, unlike this president who knows what will happen to him when he’s arrested and investigated. His tactic is to delay and deny everything.”

The declaration of martial law was “completely nonsensical,” Song says. “South Korea is a democracy in the 21st century. The last time South Korea saw martial law was 45 years ago under a military dictatorship. Even for his own PPP members, it was a shock. Yoon is technically still the president and still using his security services to guard him, and to continue the insurrection and abuse of power. He’s also sent a letter to his far-right supporters, encouraging far-right influencers to back him.”

Song says even with elections impending, “after the constitutional court rules on the impeachment motion, in about 60 days’ time, there should be an election and there’s no better alternative [to Yoon]. The opposition leader Lee Jae-myung is facing about 12 charges involving corruption, breach of election law and whatnot … Yoon was only elected in 2022 due to the unpopularity of Lee Jae-myung. He was only elected by a narrow margin, around 0.73 per cent.”

Song says, “At the end of the day, South Korean has to go through this chaos and turmoil but Yoon will be gone, there will be a new president, and there is already talk of constitutional reform after 40 years of the same constitution. At the moment, too much power is concentrated to the role of president and there’s talk of changing the presidential term to two four-year terms like the US, rather than one five-year term. Any president is a lame duck after two years at this point, and it’s a source of political instability.”